{"id":10961,"date":"2026-04-22T21:11:36","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T20:11:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/makroinfo.com\/?p=10961"},"modified":"2026-04-22T21:11:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T20:11:39","slug":"strateske-rezerve-kerozina-je-li-hrvatska-spremna-za-nestasicu-zrakoplovnog-goriva","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/makroinfo.com\/hr\/strateske-rezerve-kerozina-je-li-hrvatska-spremna-za-nestasicu-zrakoplovnog-goriva\/","title":{"rendered":"Strate\u0161ke rezerve kerozina: Je li Hrvatska spremna za nesta\u0161icu zrakoplovnog goriva?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hrvatska trenutno dr\u017ei to\u010dno 5.000 tona strate\u0161kih rezervi zrakoplovnog goriva (kerozina), \u0161to nas \u010dini dr\u017eavom s najmanje zaliha u Europskoj uniji nakon susjedne Slovenije koja uop\u0107e ne dr\u017ei zalihe kerozina. To je stanje zabilje\u017eeno u Eurostatovom mjese\u010dnom izvje\u0161taju za prosinac 2025., posljednjem izvje\u0161taju koji bilje\u017ei stanje u svim \u010dlanicama EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europa se trenutno nalazi u najozbiljnijoj krizi u opskrbi zrakoplovnim gorivom u modernoj povijesti. Direktor Me\u0111unarodne agencije za energiju (IEA) Fatih Birol izjavio je<\/a> pro\u0161li tjedan da Europi preostaje “mo\u017eda \u0161est tjedana” zaliha kerozina. Zbog rata u Iranu i ameri\u010dke pomorske blokade Hormu\u0161kog tjesnca \u2014 kroz koji, prema analizi Oxford Economicsa<\/a>, prolazi izme\u0111u \u010detvrtine i tre\u0107ine svjetske pomorske opskrbe kerozinom \u2014 cijena zrakoplovnog goriva udvostru\u010dila se u svega mjesec dana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0160to su strate\u0161ke rezerve kerozina i za\u0161to postoje<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Strate\u0161ke rezerve nafte i naftnih derivata obvezne su zalihe koje svaka zemlja \u010dlanica EU mora dr\u017eati kao osiguranje od prekida u opskrbi. Pravni okvir postavlja Direktiva 2009\/119\/EZ, koja od dr\u017eava \u010dlanica tra\u017ei zalihe ekvivalentne 90 dana prosje\u010dnog neto uvoza ili 61 dan doma\u0107e potro\u0161nje \u2014 \u0161to god je ve\u0107e. Zemlje same biraju strukturu rezervi: neke dr\u017ee vi\u0161e sirove nafte, neke gotovih proizvoda poput benzina, dizela ili kerozina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U Hrvatskoj je za upravljanje obveznim zalihama zadu\u017eena Agencija za ugljikovodike (AZU). Financira se naknadom koju pla\u0107aju svi uvoznici i proizvo\u0111a\u010di naftnih derivata, a sredstva koristi za otkup, skladi\u0161tenje i obnovu zaliha. Zalihe se mogu dr\u017eati u obliku sirove nafte, gotovih proizvoda ili ugovornih opcija o kupnji kod tre\u0107ih strana (takozvane “tickets”).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kerozin ili zrakoplovno gorivo izdvaja se iz cijele obitelji naftnih derivata kao najosjetljiviji proizvod. Za razliku od benzina i dizela, koji imaju \u0161iroku civilnu i vojnu zamjensku primjenu, kerozin se prakti\u010dki koristi isklju\u010divo u zrakoplovstvu. Prema podacima Me\u0111unarodne udruge za zra\u010dni prijevoz (IATA<\/a>), \u010dini oko 30 % ukupnih operativnih tro\u0161kova zra\u010dnih prijevoznika, dakle najve\u0107i pojedina\u010dni tro\u0161ak u industriji.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Za\u0161to neke zemlje dr\u017ee tisu\u0107e tona, a druge nula<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Razlike u koli\u010dini kerozinskih rezervi u EU izravno odra\u017eavaju zra\u010dnu infrastrukturu i ekonomsku geografiju. Francuska dr\u017ei 1.167 tisu\u0107a tona jer ima zra\u010dnu luku Charles de Gaulle, jedan od najve\u0107ih europskih zra\u010dnih \u010dvorova; Njema\u010dka 1.136 tisu\u0107a tona zbog Frankfurta i M\u00fcnchena; \u0160panjolska 714 tisu\u0107a tona zbog gusto\u0107e turisti\u010dkih ruta i velike uloge Madrid-Barajasa. Italija (596) i Nizozemska (167, sa Schipholom) slijede istu logiku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Posebno je zanimljiv slu\u010daj Irske. S populacijom od 5,1 milijun stanovnika \u2014 tek neznatno vi\u0161e od Hrvatske \u2014 Irska dr\u017ei 330,8 tisu\u0107a tona kerozina. Razlog je zra\u010dna luka u Dublinu, jedan od glavnih transatlantskih zra\u010dnih \u010dvorova u Europi, koji preta\u010de gorivo za stotine letova dnevno prema SAD-u. Rezerve su, drugim rije\u010dima, izraz stvarnog prometa, ne veli\u010dine populacije.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na suprotnoj strani nalaze se zemlje bez vlastite rafinerije: Slovenija, Cipar i Estonija dr\u017ee nula tona sirove nafte u strate\u0161kim rezervama \u2014 sve moraju dr\u017eati u gotovom obliku derivata. Slovenija je unutar tog okvira odabrala koncentrirati cjelokupnu rezervu od 517 tisu\u0107a tona u dizelu i benzinu, potpuno presko\u010div\u0161i kerozin. Po EU direktivi to je dopu\u0161teno jer ona dopu\u0161ta odre\u0111eno mije\u0161anje kategorija. U kontekstu trenutne krize, me\u0111utim, slovenski izbor djeluje prili\u010dno rizi\u010dno.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hrvatska na dnu liste dr\u017eava EU<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hrvatski podatak od 5.000 tona izgleda skromno kad se usporedi s brojkama glavnih europskih igra\u010da, ali koliko je to u praksi? Prosje\u010dni Airbus A320, naj\u010de\u0161\u0107i avion u europskom srednjelinijskom prometu, tro\u0161i oko 2,5 tone kerozina po satu leta. Hrvatska cijela strate\u0161ka rezerva kerozina dakle pokriva otprilike 2.000 sati leta takvog aviona<\/strong> \u2014 ili, za konkretniji prikaz, nekoliko tjedana rada cijele flote Croatia Airlinesa u vr\u0161ku ljetne sezone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Te rezerve su, usput re\u010deno, u proteklih pola godine porasle s nule na ovaj skromni iznos. Bitnije je pitanje funkcionira li takav buffer<\/em> u scenariju stvarne krize. Strate\u0161ke rezerve nisu dizajnirane za pokrivanje nekoliko dana rada \u2014 trebale bi biti osiguranje za tjedne ili mjesece izolacije. EU direktiva zahtijeva 90 dana zaliha za potrebe naftnog tr\u017ei\u0161ta u cjelini; na razini kerozina specifi\u010dno, razlika izme\u0111u Hrvatske i susjednih zemalja s razvijenijom strate\u0161kom infrastrukturom jasno je vidljiva na infografici.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hrvatskoj u praksi poma\u017ee doma\u0107a rafinerijska infrastruktura \u2014 INA Rijeka (Urinj) proizvodi dio kerozina za doma\u0107e tr\u017ei\u0161te \u2014 pa u normalnim uvjetima ne ovisi isklju\u010divo o uvozu gotovog goriva. No u scenariju kakav trenutno vidimo u Europi, gdje je tr\u017ei\u0161te kerozina u\u0161lo u “sistemsku nesta\u0161icu” (izraz koji je u razgovoru s CNBC-om<\/a> upotrijebio Claudio Galimberti iz Rystad Energyja), i sama rafinerija ovisi o dotoku sirove nafte kroz sustav JANAF-a i Jadransko more. Drugim rije\u010dima, doma\u0107a proizvodnja nije autonomno rje\u0161enje ako se europska kriza opskrbe produbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kriza u Iranu i lavina otkazivanja letova<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Rat izme\u0111u SAD-a i Irana zapo\u010deo je 28. velja\u010de 2026. Cijena nafte<\/a> u roku od nekoliko dana pre\u0161la je razinu od 100 dolara po barelu. Klju\u010dni pomak dogodio se u o\u017eujku, kada je ameri\u010dka mornarica uspostavila pomorsku blokadu ulaza u Hormu\u0161ki tjesnac. Prema Oxford Economicsu<\/a>, cijene sirove nafte u o\u017eujku su sko\u010dile za 64 % \u2014 najve\u0107i \u0161ok od 2022. Od po\u010detka rata nijedan brod s kerozinom iz Zaljeva nije pro\u0161ao tjesnac.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Posljedica je eskalacija dviju paralelnih kriza. Prva je cjenovna: prema podacima IATA-e, cijena kerozina u o\u017eujku je porasla za 103 % na mjese\u010dnoj razini. Trenutni “crack spread” (razlika izme\u0111u cijene kerozina i sirove nafte iz koje se proizvodi) dosegnuo je rekordnih 80 dolara po barelu. Druga kriza je fizi\u010dka: brodovi s kerozinom iz Zaljeva jednostavno ne dolaze. SAD je pove\u0107ao izvoz kerozina prema Europi \u0161esterostruko, na oko 150.000 barela dnevno, ali to pokriva tek dio jaza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zato su u posljednjih mjesec dana aviokompanije jedna za drugom najavile rezove. Ryanair razmatra smanjenje kapaciteta za ljeto, Wizz Air o\u010dekuje udarac od 50 milijuna eura na neto dobit u 2026., KLM \u0107e narednog mjeseca otkazati 160 letova iz Amsterdama, SAS je otkazao tisu\u0107u letova u travnju. Lufthansa je objavila otkazivanje 20.000 letova<\/a> i ubrzano gasi CityLine feeder operacije, uklju\u010duju\u0107i 27 starijih aviona koje povla\u010di prije roka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0160to to zna\u010di za hrvatsku turisti\u010dku sezonu<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Za Hrvatsku, koja ostvaruje oko petine BDP-a od turizma i gdje ve\u0107ina stranih turista s udaljenih tr\u017ei\u0161ta dolazi zrakom, nesta\u0161ica kerozina nije apstraktna pri\u010da. Ako europske aviokompanije nastave rezati kapacitete pred ljetnu sezonu, manje \u0107e letova ulaziti u Zagreb, Split i Dubrovnik. Prema ve\u0107 spomenutoj analizi Oxford Economicsa, europske cijene aviokarata mogle bi ovoga ljeta porasti 5-10 %, uz dodatni pritisak preko “fuel surcharge” dodataka koje kompanije ve\u0107 sada uvode.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pitanje strate\u0161kih rezervi kerozina vjerojatno \u0107e postati vidljivo u doma\u0107oj politici tek ako do\u0111e do izravne nesta\u0161ice na hrvatskom tr\u017ei\u0161tu, a scenariji za to postoje. Ako kriza u Hormuzu potraje u ljetnu sezonu, konkurencija oko ograni\u010dene opskrbe kerozina me\u0111u europskim zra\u010dnim lukama mogla bi dovesti do situacije u kojoj manji aerodromi jednostavno ne dobivaju gorivo na vrijeme. U tom slu\u010daju, rezerva od 5.000 tona svakako je bolja od nule, ali nekoliko tjedna prometa ne \u010dine ozbiljan strate\u0161ki buffer za krizu koja bi mogla trajati mjesecima.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Infografika u vrhu \u010dlanka prikazuje cjelovitu sliku strate\u0161kih rezervi kerozina u EU u prosincu 2025. \u2014 posljednjem mjesecu za koji su dostupni podaci za gotovo sve \u010dlanice (podatak za \u0160vedsku odnosi se na studeni 2025.). Izvor podataka je Eurostatov dataset nrg_stk_oilm<\/a>. Brojke su izra\u017eene u tisu\u0107ama tona i pokazuju stanje obveznih rezervi prijavljenih Europskoj komisiji u okviru direktive 2009\/119\/EZ.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hrvatska trenutno dr\u017ei to\u010dno 5.000 tona strate\u0161kih rezervi zrakoplovnog goriva (kerozina), \u0161to nas \u010dini dr\u017eavom s najmanje zaliha u Europskoj 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